One in a Month, One in a Million

Let's talk a bit about Austin Jackson. Boosie was asking me the other day, and people on Yankees blogs have been wondering [and I know Angie has a vested interest in this, as well].

I like Austin Jackson, and he is certainly off to a hot start. Tigers CF, hitting about .370, making everyone forget about Curtis Granderson.... might even be Rookie of the Year! I truly wish him well, except for*: [1] When he plays against the Yankees, and [2] in the RoY voting, if any Yankee has a real shot at it [Cervelli? Is Eyes eligible?] That's a disclaimer.

This is all off the top of my head, so bear with me. Read the black and white: A-Jax will not hit .370 this year. A-Jax will not hit .370 in any full season between now and eternity. [Dita von Troll, or whatever your name is, this one's for you:] A-Jax will not finish the season with a higher batting average than all of the following Yankee ballplayers: Brett Gardner, Derek Jeter, Mark Teixiera, Nick Swisher, and Robinson Cano.

Look, I know Austin is a good kid and tremendous athlete, and I want him to do well. * Here's the deal: He's hitting maybe 31% line drives as we speak. His BaBip [batting average of balls put into play - meaning, not home runs or strike outs] is .500 and change. .500!! [I am tempted to type .500!!!11!11! haha!]

Now, let's consider his projections. .250, .260. Newly revised ones at .270 or .280. What does this all mean? Austin is riding the crest of two combined waves right now: [1] He's on fire. Really. [2] The league has not yet adjusted to him. What will happen when the league adjusts to him? What will happen when he goes into a slump?

All things considered, he also has 35+ strikeouts right now. One home run. So, based on this trend, he will hit five taters and K over 250 times? Wow.... Last year, at SWB in AAA, his BaBip was pretty high, at .385 or so, and he batted .300 on the year. A similar BaBip right now would put him down around .250 or so. I think he would be back in AAA before that happens. We shall see.... What do I think will happen? The league will adjust, he'll adjust back, he'll develop a bit more power [or, playing in Fenway and YS will boost him up a bit], and he'll begin to cut down his strikeout rate. How does .280 with ten dingers sound for the season? Time will tell......