Second Thoughts and Second Guessing

Last week I was pretty convinced that Israel was getting ready to launch an aerial strike against Iran, targeting Iran's nascent nuclear weapons development program. I mentioned a few bits of information which I found possibly relevant - chief among these was the mysterious disappearance of Binyamin Netanyahu [Israeli Prime Minister] one day when it eventually came out that he was visiting Dmitri Medvedev and/or Vladimir Putin in Moscow. I postulated that this visit was to seek Russia's tacit approval for the strike against Iran.

Since I posted, President Obama has announced that we are not going to be deploying the Anti-Ballistic Missile Shield in Poland and the Czech Republic. In return, Russia has announced that they will not be deploying short-range ballistic missiles in Kaliningrad, and it also looks like we get overflight access as well as overland supply routes into Afghanistan. What else? What if there is a "pot-sweetener" that has not been announced? Namely, Russian acquiescence to stern economic sanctions against Iran, in order to [hopefully] cause Iran to abandon their program to develop nuclear weapons. So, follow me now: Russia approves sterner economic sanctions against Iran, Israel defers on ordering an aerial strike against Iran and waits instead to see what effect the sanctions will have, and the US declares that it will not pursue the Eastern European Missile Shield.

To date, my thought that perhaps Iran would get hit by September 21 [happily] has not happened. Well, read up on this link, though:

http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id=106809&sectionid=351020101

So, Iran is claiming that ""Glowing objects were sighted over the Persian Gulf. IRGC air defense targeted one of the objects successfully, forcing it to plummet and sink in the seas off Boushehr (Province)," said top regional commander, Brigadier Ali Razmjou.

"The three bright objects were detected by our radars when flying over the Persian Gulf Islands of Khark and Khargou," he added, according to a Monday report posted on IRNA.

Brig. Razmjou explained that when the radars indicated that they were not Iranian aircrafts, the IRGC fired at the three objects. He also added that the fallen objects' remains have not been found yet. " [This was copied from Iranian PressTV's website at 6:52 PM EDT on 23 September, 2009].

I have seen many times the inflated claims than Iran attaches to new wonder weapons and such, that are either absolute pieces of rubbish, or [even more brazenly] some other country's system. Usually there is SOME kernel of truth to be found.....

What if there WAS something flying over Khark and Khargou? Not extra-terrestrial: what if it was an Israeli or American UAV [Unarmed Aerial Vehicle]? How would that change things? Hmmmmm.... curiouser and curiouser.

Crawdad

Well, let's see... we have crawfished, and are not going forward with the Eastern European Missile Shield. We have "other options".

Natanyahu visited Putin....

what is the best way to defend against Iran?

• Ramadan ends with the new moon
• [and a new moon is when it is darkest - best time for an aerial assault].
• New moon is on the 18th.
• Rosh Hashana is the 19th [probably nothing then].
• Do we see something on the 20th or 21st?

Seriously, I hope not.....

[oh, one more thing -

• the Iranians have always said that if they get whacked, they will close the Straits of Hormuz. Didja notice that 50% of our attack subs are deployed? Not just out of home port. Deployed.] Go figure.

China and the Afghanistan Policy

Now, no sources [I am too lazy for that at this time of the day!], but a couple of thoughts:

[1] Afghanistan is all about boots on the ground. Sure, there are other factors in play [I'm not THAT simple-minded, after all], but it seems to me that we need to operate in accordance with the situation and environment, rather than in accordance with our prowess. [For example, why not have more troops interacting with the Afghanis, rather than bombing the krap out of targets? I know, I know, we have good intel and precise targeting, but mistakes happen and it alienates the Afghanis when we accidentally kill people who do not need dying. Afraid of losses? Then why are we there in the first place? Seriously.... there is violence inherent in conflict. People die. If we are not willing to risk people dying, then we should not put them at risk.]

[2] IF boots on the ground is a potential solution regarding Afghanistan, where do we get them from? To a small degree, we now have additional forces available thanks to the drawdown in Iraq, but our guys are tired, and the coalition of the willing is less-so these days.

[3] The draft? hahahahahaha. Good one. One of the reasons we excel nowadays is precisely because of the draft's passing. Draftees can indeed be paid less than professional soldiers. Ya get what ya pay for. With professional soldiers, much, much more can be done with less. Ya DO know the Iraqi's outnumbered us in BOTH wars, right? Heck, even the People's Liberation Army is moving away from conscription toward a smaller, professional force, which leads me to:

[4] China! Okay, first - India! Why NOT India? Well, Hillary is favoring China and Pakistan, for starters, and Afghanistan borders on Pakistan, and letting Indian troops in Afghanistan on the far side of Pakistan would essentially be allowing India to encircle Pakistan. Figure the odds of THAT ever happening.

[5] China! This time, let's discuss the China option. Strategically, China is okay with us being distracted elsewhere [especially if they have serious, immediate designs on Taiwan]. That is not necessarily the Chinese way, though. Single drops of water over time can crack granite - that is more the Chinese way. Perhaps Taiwan will sort itself out over time, to the mainland's favor. Wanna bet against it? So, if Taiwan will eventually sort itself out, and China is happy as hell with the current economic situation [any ideas who China sells much of it's product to? Exactly! What would they ever do without Wal-Mart? haha].

[6] Meantime, China has its own share of problems. Among them, separatist Uighurs out in Sinkiang in the far west. [Xinjiang]. Guess what? Most of these cats [Uighurs] are Islamic, and the radical extremist ones have ties in [you guessed it] Afghanistan. China has a vested interest in Afghanistan, in other words. Professionalizing their army, they will need practice. Killing two birds with one stone, they get practice in the very environment they need to practice in [cold, rocky, mountainous, facing Muslim extremists]. We get additional boots on the ground in order to stabilize Afghanistan.

[7] On the other hand, we risk allowing China to have additional influence in Afghanistan.

[8] What are y'all's thoughts on the matter? Be objective, give reasons - I'd love to hear what ya have to say.